Jan 28, 2013 7:00am EST
states which is under, and if we don't resolve some of the debt ceiling and some the spending cuts, when you get into some of the fiscal order that you're talking about, you're going to have that weight on it. and even though you have proposed a lot of folks with japan in terms of some of the political leadership, they are still at negative growth with 7%. so now you're up to 50% or so of world gdp that is a drag on the economy. how do you look at the broadest sense of contagion as it relates to emerging market growth, developing country growth, with 50% of world gdp possibly in a situation? >> i think the trade figures tell at all whether you agree with that or not. i think the trade figures show what's happening. and there's no doubt picking one of the countries you mentioned, china. i mean, china for the last 20 years has been double-digit growth. last year they had one of the worst years in recent memory, we will see the final figures coming out. it didn't get below 7% which i view as a hard landing. but when you move from double-digit down to seven something are sent back, and one o
Jan 29, 2013 4:00pm EST
. eventually we'll have to deal with spending cuts and the debt ceiling debate. whether or not that's it. for the meantime, the markets run a long time just because they are soaking up all the stimulus from the fed. >> a lot of stimulus from the other central banks cutting trase today. greg, you want to get in front of this train and fight the fed? >> yeah, i think that the fed is going to continue pushing pretty hard this year but equity investors have to take a look at what's in the fed's tool backs and realize they have shot every arrow that they have got. they will keep gig qe this year, maybe another $1 trillion but even inside the fed there's doubts about how much more effective will be at this stage, what, with long-term interest rates as low as they are. tomorrow i don't expect any fireworks from them. i'll be interested to see how they characterize the economy, whether they are getting more comfortable with it now that we have the biggest piece of the fiscal cliff out of the way or whether they are still concerned that employment is sluggish an inflation is tracking kind of low.